The window of opportunity to secure a positive future for the Great Barrier Reef (the Reef) is closing rapidly. The Reef remains a vast and spectacular ecosystem and one of the most complex natural systems on Earth. Recognised for its outstanding universal value as a World-Heritage-listed property, it transcends national boundaries and is a source of pride for the Australian public.  It supports the livelihoods and wellbeing of its Traditional Owners and coastal communities by providing material, spiritual and cultural sustenance and drawing visitors from across the world. It delivers ecosystem services that support the economic prosperity of tourism, fishing and other industries that depend on the Reef.

A wealth of habitats, species and genetic riches underlie the Reef’s resilience, and — thanks to decades of effective protection and management — its natural beauty and natural phenomena endure. Nevertheless, the ratcheting pressures brought about by climate change, combined with chronic and legacy impacts, are undermining the Reef’s resilience. The Region’s overall long-term outlook remains one of continued deterioration due largely to climate change.

Urgent action to deliver on international commitments that would limit temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming — or as close as possible — remains critical. This would deliver the best possible future for the Reef and the livelihoods that depend on it. But global action is currently falling short of what is needed. New ways of thinking are needed to complement existing management in charting a positive path forward for the Reef and its dependent communities.

The Great Barrier Reef Outlook Report 2024 has been prepared by the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority based on the best available information. Prepared every 5 years, Outlook Reports provides a summary of the long-term outlook for the Reef based on its condition, use, influencing factors, management effectiveness, resilience and risks. It fulfils the requirements of Section 54 of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Act 1975 (Cth). The reporting period generally includes data from January 2019 to December 2023 and, where possible, compares it with historical trends.

2024 opens a new chapter for the Reef. Future warming already locked into the climate system means that further degradation is inevitable. This is the sobering calculus of climate change. Every increment of additional global warming will further compromise the Reef’s unique biodiversity, with continuing consequences for cultural heritage, social and economic benefits, and the broader ecosystem services of the Reef.

Over the past 5 years, the condition of natural values of the Great Barrier Reef Region (the Region), including species, habitats and ecosystem processes has varied, with both improvements and deteriorations documented. Overall, the condition of habitats remains poor on a Region-wide scale, in large part due to the ongoing vulnerability of coral reef habitats.

Despite widespread coral bleaching in 2020 and 2022, the absence of mass mortality from the bleaching — along with relatively little cyclone damage and effective management of crown-of-thorns starfish — allowed for recovery of fast-growing corals across much of the Region. This resulted in an improved overall condition of coral reef habitats from very poor to poor (borderline good), but this varies across the Reef. The condition of seagrass meadows has also improved since 2019 to good (borderline poor) condition, reflecting the recovery from past flooding impacts in some areas. Other habitats remain in good or very good condition.

Improvements in the condition of some species did occur in the reporting period (2019 to 2023). Widespread recovery of corals, typically led by a few fast-growing species, led to an improved condition for this group from very poor to poor. Some taxa, such as seabirds, sharks and rays, dugongs, and seagrasses, have shown a mix of recovery and decline across different species and populations. Most populations of marine turtles have declined. Many of the species showing declines are listed as threatened or protected species under various State and Commonwealth legislation.

The Region relies upon the healthy functioning of a range of physical, chemical and ecological processes, and connection to functioning coastal ecosystems. The conditions of most processes are similar to those reported in 2019, with continued deterioration of several key processes influenced by climate change and land-based runoff.

While recent recovery in some ecosystem values demonstrates that the Reef is still resilient, its capacity to tolerate and recover is jeopardised by a rapidly changing climate. Outlook Report 2024 reports on the past five years to December 2023. The subsequent events of early 2024 provide a stark illustration of warnings articulated since the first Outlook Report was released in 2009. The arrival of El Niño climate conditions in mid-2023 brought record global temperatures on land and in the oceans and, by the end of summer 2023–24, the now-familiar sight of mass coral bleaching. Although the full impacts of this latest mass coral bleaching event are still being determined, the event highlights the narrowing of critical recovery windows for the Reef’s health.

Many of the Region’s heritage values, particularly Indigenous heritage, are inseparable from the condition of the ecosystem and are vulnerable to the same threats. The living heritage of First Nations people across the Region remains resilient. Agency and access by First Nations people to manage their Country is fundamental to the condition of ecosystem and heritage values. Strengthening Traditional Owner involvement in the management of Sea Country is vital. Managing agencies can continue to build an enabling environment for Traditional Owners to protect Land and Sea Country through implementation of co-management principles. The Reef 2050 Traditional Owner Implementation Plan is a critical part of this pathway forward. Other heritage values, including social, aesthetic and scientific, are considered in good condition overall . While the property’s outstanding universal value as a World Heritage Area remains whole and intact, its integrity continues to be challenged.

The Reef ecosystem, the people who use and depend on it, and human wellbeing are deeply interconnected. Understanding the relationships and feedback loops between the Reef’s ecological and social systems is crucial. As the Reef changes, it will pose unprecedented challenges to dependent communities and industries, and require changes in the way people interact with, and derive benefit from, the Reef.  The Reef remains a significant economic resource for industry, regional Queensland communities and Australia. The COVID-19 pandemic affected most Reef-dependent industries due to national and international border closures and impacts to market chains. Tourism visitation was greatly reduced during this time but is starting to recover. Reductions in international trade and exports affected the commercial fishing, shipping and port industries. In contrast, recreational use of the Region is understood to have increased.

The Region is influenced by activities occurring within and adjacent to the Region and is protected and managed by a partnership between many government agencies, Traditional Owners, stakeholders and community members. Effective management of the Region is a complex task given the range of threats and their variation across space and time. An independent review found the Region continues to be well managed, with the Reef 2050 Long-term Sustainability Plan improving jurisdictional consistency, coordination and resourcing. Direct use of the Region is also generally well managed reflecting, in part, the maturity of many management systems. Management of the Reef’s values in relation to climate change and coastal development remains subject to significant challenges.

Climate driven disturbances are compounding the cumulative effects of chronic impacts (such as unsustainable fishing, pollution and sedimentation), acute disturbances (such as cyclones), and outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish. Building on efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, management actions need to continue to address compounding threats and support the Reef’s natural resilience. Actions must capitalise on recovery windows and maximise the Reef’s inherent capacity for regeneration and change.

It is vital to identify and protect places (including climate refugia), habitats, species and ecosystem processes that are critical for resilience. Well-targeted culling of crown-of-thorns starfish can promote resilience in coral reef habitats by preventing severe coral losses from predation and protecting the supply of juvenile corals to damaged reefs. Multi-agency efforts to explore tangible and scalable reef interventions may lead to a suite of other innovative and targeted measures that could provide options for management in future.

Meeting water quality improvement targets is a crucial step towards a more resilient Reef. Poor water quality continues to affect many coastal and inshore areas of the Reef. Since 2019, water quality has continued to improve slowly reflecting modest improvements in agricultural land management practices and land-based runoff.

Sustainable fisheries and healthy fish populations are critical to maintaining a healthy ecosystem and a functioning Reef. Ongoing reform under the Queensland Sustainable Fisheries Strategy 2017-2027 has led to important improvements in fisheries management. Notably, the incidental catch of species of conservation concern is likely to go down due to implementation of the planned phase-out of gillnets in the Reef by 2027. However, fishing activities continue to have a high impact on the Region’s values. Some stocks, such as saucer scallops and Spanish mackerel, remain depleted and outcomes from fisheries reforms are yet to be fully realised. Key gaps in understanding relate to recreational fishing, discarded catch and bycatch, and independent validation of fishing data.

A vigilant, proactive and optimistic approach to management remains crucial. The Reef may be forever changed, but it has various possible futures. Choices made today can lead to vastly different outcomes — the path that unfolds will be shaped by the actions of many.

Difficult choices and trade-offs will need to be met head on and more often. Managers must take a clear-eyed approach, making decisions in the face of uncertainty and responsibly evaluating outcomes. Decisions should be based on the best available evidence, apply a risk-based approach, and acknowledge the realities of a changing Reef. Effective decision making depends on decision support tools that leverage emerging technologies and incorporate monitoring data, outputs from models, cultural science, and field intelligence.

Strong and effective actions are urgent at global, regional and local scales. Broad, multijurisdictional management actions that involve the community and behaviour change will be important in maintaining resilience of social heritage values. The health of the Reef ecosystem will continue to have both impacts on, and benefits for, the community and human wellbeing. Society will need to play a pivotal and urgent role in mitigation and adaptation to support the Region’s resilience.

The Great Barrier Reef is one of the best managed reef systems in the world. While coral reefs across the globe are facing urgent and present threats from a warming climate, the Reef’s diversity of habitats, species and genetic riches uniquely position it to retain resilience in the face of change. The future Reef will be altered by climatic changes already in motion, but just as every increment of warming compounds impacts, every effective action taken now contributes to a more positive long-term outlook.

• source: https://outlookreport.gbrmpa.gov.au/about/executive-summary